Nuggets Mailbag: Nikola Jokic’s future, Christian Braun’s extension value and more Jonas Valanciunas chatter

Denver Post beat writer Bennett Durando opens up the Nuggets Mailbag periodically during the season and offseason. You can submit a Nuggets- or NBA-related question here. Did Sacramento know about the Jonas Valanciunas/Europe situation when they made the trade? The whole thing seems shady from that end. — Andrew, Denver Thanks for starting us off, Andrew. I honestly don’t know for sure how much the Kings did or didn’t know ahead of time. That part definitely remains murky, and I can see how it’s tempting to assume they were stealth-dumping their problem on Denver’s doorstep. But my educated guess is that they couldn’t have known Panathinaikos was lurking. Why would they have made the trade if they did? The whole purpose of the deal for them was to shed salary. There is no other justification for trading a sturdy, dependable backup center for one who played 16 underwhelming games last season. By turning Valanciunas into Dario Saric, the Kings saved about $4.7 million in cap space for 2025-26. If they had known Valanciunas was yearning for the beaches of Greece (or the increase in guaranteed money), they could have hypothetically reached a contract buyout agreement instead of trading him. Sacramento would’ve had the same leverage that Denver now has, except with actual incentive to release him from his NBA contract. There’s no telling exactly how that would’ve played out — maybe the Kings felt that trading him was the safer outcome than risking a failed buyout negotiation — but if Valanciunas earnestly wants to play overseas and would’ve willingly forfeited his entire salary, Sacramento could’ve conceivably saved $10.4 million in cap space. That’s more than twice what was saved by taking on Saric’s contract. Bennett, love your reporting. My question is about Christian Braun. He improved by leaps and bounds last year. What do you think he’ll do this year? — AJ, Aurora How much do you think Christian Braun will get paid on his next contract? — David, Denver The salary cap is expected to increase by only 7% in 2026-27, which could rain on the Braun extension parade a bit. I do expect the Nuggets and him to get a deal done while he’s eligible this offseason, but the number will be interesting. Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus recently projected four years and $94 million for an average annual value of $23.5 million. That might be on the low end, though. Spotrac’s Keith Smith projected Braun to be one of only five players in the 2022 draft class to eclipse $30 million annually on his second contract (at four years and $120 million), along with Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Walker Kessler. ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks also offered a valuation of “at least $30 million per year,” but that was notably when the cap was expected to increase by a larger percentage. Due diligence for the Nuggets is to negotiate. They’re already on the hook for at least $171.6 million in 2026-27, spread across five contracts — even after they improved their cap sheet with the Michael Porter Jr. trade. If Braun’s salary does exceed $30 million, the 2026-27 starting lineup plus Zeke Nnaji will cost more than $200 million, with the second apron estimated to be $222.4 million. That doesn’t account for Peyton Watson’s possible extension, Jonas Valanciunas’ non-guaranteed salary and four rookie-scale contracts with team options on them. It’s very much within the realm of possibility that Denver ends up with a second-apron payroll and multiple roster spots still open. Braun is already a versatile and valuable player with room to keep improving. His screen navigation as a lead defensive guard is on an upward trajectory. On offense, he can boost his 3-point shooting reputation by maintaining his efficiency at higher volume — and by punishing defenses that ignore him in the playoffs more than he did this year. I don’t believe that his on-ball ability is fully developed yet, either. The foundation of who he is as a player is established, but there are supporting layers he can add. If one thing’s clear after last season, it’s that Braun is highly committed to making those strides. Denver should want him to be part of its long-term future alongside Nikola Jokic, who’s an advocate for the young guard. One way to possibly get Braun’s AAV down could be to offer him five years for a higher total dollar amount. For reference, 2021 draftees Jalen Suggs (Orlando) and Jalen Johnson (Atlanta) both signed five-year extensions last offseason for $150 million, when the cap was lower. Is Braun in that same class of player? Is his ceiling higher or lower? His floor? Several angles to consider when evaluating what percentage of the cap he’s worth. Hey Bennett, what’s the rotation going to look like this year? We picked up so many pieces that our depth looks amazing on paper. I have a starting five of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Jamal Murray and Christian Braun. And then we could play Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther and Jalen Pickett. That’s 11 guys deep. — Mike, Denver “You really would like to have a long rotation to start the season,” David Adelman told The Denver Post in Las Vegas, “and then let things play out as they will.” I think the first-year head coach is likely to tinker with that rotation a lot throughout the regular season. It’s difficult to assess exactly how much depth the Nuggets have at this point (you never know who might have a down season or injury), but what they indisputably do have is an abundance of options. You’d like to think that at least one of Strawther or Hardaway will be an effective backup shooting guard, whereas you were holding your breath last season that Strawther could be consistently dependable in that role as an NBA sophomore. The same goes for the architecture of the frontcourt. Watson can theoretically play more on the wing than in previous years, but he could also provide reinforcements at the four if Holmes struggles to find his footing. Or Holmes can slide to the five when Denver gives Jokic a night off and Valanciunas starts. Not everything is going to work, but the Nuggets should have enough moving parts to gracefully navigate the ideas that don’t. I wouldn’t be shocked to see all 11 of the players you mentioned in the opening-night rotation, but that could eventually morph into an arrangement where nine or 10 guys play every game, with the ninth and 10th spots dependent on the matchup or the hot hand. Related Articles Nuggets Podcast: Nikola Jokic passes on extension, Jonas Valanciunas visits Greece and DaRon Holmes II makes Summer League return Nuggets vs. Raptors Summer League takeaways: Denver can’t handle ball pressure in loss to Toronto David Adelman on Jonas Valanciunas, Nuggets offseason moves: Second unit an “open competition” DaRon Holmes II on returning to game speed at Summer League: ‘It just takes some time’ Keeler: Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr. might be your Lex Luthor. But to this Denver family, he’ll always be Superman Bennett, I know it makes sense financially for Jokic to delay extension talks until next year, but should we be worried about him joining Luka in L.A. at all? — Ashley, Golden The reality of the NBA is that anytime a player of Jokic’s pedigree chooses not to extend with his current team, it’s going to be fodder for speculation. The talk show segments and greedy Laker fans are kind of unavoidable, even in cases like this where the financial incentive to decline an extension is pretty obvious. The Luka trade taught me to never say the word “impossible” about a hypothetical transaction. But my advice would be that it’s pointless to live in fear of losing a player who’s never given any indication he wants to leave. I think it would take a pretty disastrous season in Denver for Jokic to consider turning down the extension next summer. Even if the Nuggets fall short again in the playoffs, their recent coaching, front office and roster moves have sent a clear message that they’re not treating their superstar’s prime with complacency. Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.